Dynasty Quarterback Market Check-In

Buying a home is a major life decision for anyone. Every house is different, and timing the market is key. The same goes for the difficult decision of buying quarterbacks, especially in superflex and 2QB leagues. Factors such as location, surrounding attractions, and market value have major impacts on both buying and selling houses quarterbacks. The 2019 season is almost upon us, so here is one last look on how to navigate the current dynasty quarterback market with a couple of quarterbacks who are value buys as well as a couple to flip for profit.


Buys

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings

Cousins carries a reputation, largely thanks to dynasty Twitter, that implies that he is a sub-par quarterback who cannot win big games. Winning NFL games aside, Cousins has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers at his position over the past four seasons since becoming a starter.

Despite his reputation, any signal caller who averages over 4,300 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and just 11 interceptions per season is likely to finish as a low-end fantasy QB1 at the very worst. With a much-improved offensive line bolstered by the addition of first-round selection Garrett Bradbury, who should step in and contribute immediately, Cousins is likely to have more time in the pocket this season to find one of his many weapons downfield. With receivers like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and Irv Smith, not to mention a healthy Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, the 2019 Vikings offense has the potential to be one of the deadliest in the league.

In standard 12-team superflex PPR formats, Cousins has a value of 27.6 on our Dynasty Trade Calculator, which equates more or less to an early 2020 first-round rookie pick plus an early 2020 second-round pick. A quarterback like Cousins who offers an annual QB1 floor with top-five potential and is still in his prime at just 30 years old is easily worth paying this package of two unknown assets, even in a lauded 2020 rookie class.

 

Dwayne Haskins – Washington Redskins

After a surprising fall to the 15th overall selection in the 2019 NFL Draft, Washington pulled the trigger on the Ohio State product. Despite bringing in free agent Case Keenum, reports surfaced that Haskins was battling for the opening week starting gig. He has already displayed his strong arm and the ability to fire a cannon from anywhere on the field during some dazzling training camp plays. Additionally, Haskins stands at a fierce 6’3 and 230 lbs and has the frame to withstand hits from NFL defenders. Though the rookie quarterback could take a bit of a beating this season behind an offensive line without Pro Bowl left tackle holdout Trent Williams, his stout frame mitigates injury concerns.

From 2015 to 2017, Jay Gruden’s passing offense ranked extremely highly in net yards gained per pass attempt, finishing sixth, second, and and twelfth in the league, respectively. With a quality signal caller at the helm, Gruden’s offense has no problems moving up and down the field. In his final season as a Buckeye, Haskins threw for a ridiculous 4,831 yards, 50 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions while completing 70.0% of his passes. Haskins’s skill set should allow him to thrive in Gruden’s offensive scheme and potentially provide an immediate return on investment for this consistently-mediocre Washington franchise.

In standard 12-team superflex PPR formats, Haskins enters the league with a calculator value of 16.1, which is roughly equivalent to a projected late 2020 first-round rookie pick. Though the 2020 class is gaining hype by the minute, nabbing a franchise quarterback and high-end fantasy QB2 with a late future first-round pick is still well-worth the investment.


Sells

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

After signing with Oakland this past offseason (don’t worry — Athletics, not Raiders), Murray changed his mind and decided he instead wanted to pursue a career in football. Without yet having taken a single snap in the NFL, Murray has skyrocketed in value largely in part due to newly-hired head coach Kliff Kingsbury and his college-style spread offense. The hype surrounding both the offensive system and Murray himself have gone too far. Taking into consideration that Murray will be playing behind the same offensive line that allowed Josh Rosen to be sacked a disastrous 45 times last season, Murray’s immediate upside may be more capped than many believe.

In the recent Scott Fish Bowl drafts, Murray finished with an ADP inside the top-10 QBs, indicating outrageously high expectations heading into his rookie season. While this is a redraft format, Murray’s elevated ADP showcases the general public’s belief in unrealistically high fantasy production from Murray as a rookie, and many dynasty owners expecting immediate contributions from Murray are likely to be similarly disappointed. His ADP was higher than quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Drew Brees, all of whom have produced as fantasy QB1s in recent seasons. Those expecting Murray to out-produce any combination of those proven assets are in for a long 2019 season.

Should any owners in your dynasty league also value Murray above proven fantasy quarterbacks, use this opportunity to sell high on an unproven asset behind an offensive line that will struggle to protect, no matter what the offensive scheme may be.

 

Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers

Newton is entering the season at 30 years of age, and while 30 may not be a worrisome milestone for most quarterbacks, Newton’s reliance on rushing yards and scores to generate fantasy production makes him an exception. To add fuel to the fire, he is rebounding from a nagging shoulder injury that required him to undergo surgery this past January. While reports are optimistic that Newton’s shoulder is healing well, he is still a risk given his play style.

According to DTC’s latest superflex startup ADP, Newton is coming off the board at QB10 despite somewhat average production dating back to 2016. While his overall fantasy points have stayed fairly impressive, Newton has on average thrown for just 226.8 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions per game over the last three seasons. As a passer, Newton has struggled to consistently win against opposing defenses. If Newton’s rushing production declines, he has proven to be an unreliable fantasy asset based on pure passing production.

Drafting Newton in hopes of seeing consistent QB1 production has been an extremely risky strategy for the previous three seasons and will continue to be heading into 2019. If Newton is rostered on any superflex dynasty teams, it would be prudent to take this opportunity amidst optimistic reports out of camps about his shoulder to sell. It’s very possible that Newton could fetch a return of younger quarterbacks like Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Sam Darnold, and maybe even a rookie pick or prospect on top. Any injury that results in missed time this season could send his dynasty value into a tailspin, so now is the time to sell Newton from superflex rosters not in contention this year.

By | 2019-08-20T11:02:56-05:00 August 20th, 2019|
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