Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are instances of three running backs who have each experienced notable value swings this season. Additionally, it includes brief analyses on what promoted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each running back moving forward.

Tarik Cohen | 8.1

Prior to the 2017 season, a share of Tarik Cohen could be obtained for next to nothing. He went undrafted in many rookie drafts and carried a Dynasty Trade Value (DTV) of precisely zero. Since then, Cohen’s value has soared and he currently retains a DTV of 8.1, which closely resembles the DTV of a late 2018 first round rookie draft pick. In just one, not to mention his first, month of NFL regular season play, Cohen’s value went from non-existent to that of a first round rookie pick. Through five weeks, he has provided immediate value to the Bears offense, averaging over 12 touches per game. The Bears depth at running back is thin, with Jordan Howard being the only player who poses a legitimate threat to limit Cohen’s production. However, the skill sets of Howard and Cohen are more complementary than limiting.

The Bears overall offensive weapon supply has suffered, allowing Cohen opportunities to receive favorable volume this season. Although he has only reached the end zone once, he has managed to average over 5.5 yards per offensive touch. While Chicago’s opportunities for touchdowns may be lower than average, and Howard likely continuing to receive the goal line carries, Cohen presents a potent weapon as a pass-catching back in the red zone. He has accrued five red zone targets through five games as well as over 100 yards on kickoff and punt returns.

Cohen is 22 years old and appears to be a key weapon in a young Bears offense that should allow him continuous opportunities for growth and success. While Cohen is likely to maintain his pace of averaging 13.1 PPR points per game, he could easily increase it by finding the end zone more often which would subsequently increase his DTV.

Isaiah Crowell | 5.5

Before the 2017 season, Isaiah Crowell carried a DTV of 10.0, a value noticeably higher than that of Cohen’s today. However, while Cohen’s trended upward, Crowell’s did the opposite. Five weeks through the season, these two running backs have had very different seasons. Currently, Crowell holds a DTV of 5.5 which weighs similarly to that of an early 2018 second round rookie pick, hinting that his value may have peaked during the offseason.

Crowell, 24, has had 62 rushing attempts and seven receptions through this season’s first five games. He is averaging an uninspiring 3.6 yards per touch, good for just five PPR points per game. Similar to Chicago, Cleveland has a young offense that garners limited scoring opportunities. Crowell has yet to reach the end zone this season, a result of limited red zone touches that include only five rushing attempts and one reception.

Duke Johnson handles the Browns backfield pass-catching responsibilities, limiting Crowell’s touch opportunities to rushing on early downs. Not to mention, Cleveland has yet to take the lead in a game season which, from a game planning standpoint, prevents those desired Crowell touch opportunities from becoming reality.

Todd Gurley | 40.5

The value of a running back can shift quickly as a result of both recent and sustained workload and production. After just five weeks, Todd Gurley has ascended from a DTV of 24.9 to a DTV of 40.5. He has reclaimed a value that only the top tier of running backs are familiar with. A renewed offensive system under new Rams head coach Sean McVay has introduced Gurley with a very voluminous workload. Through five games, he has 100 rushing attempts and 29 targets, resulting in an average of 5.3 yards per touch and 25.7 PPR points per game.

Gurley’s value is now on par with that of two or three 2018 first round rookie picks, a tradeoff ultimately dependent on where those picks are projected. Maintaining the role of a workhorse running back that is active in the passing game of a young, up and coming Rams offense leaves very little to be desired, especially when that offense is scoring more than the league average.

While considering practical ceiling value expectations at the running back position, it is worth noting that Gurley’s value has very little room to grow. However, with David Johnson’s injury, Ezekiel Elliott’s legal difficulties, and several questionable factors with Le’Veon Bell that include his age, non-guaranteed future with the Steelers, and history of drug suspensions, there are valid reasons to believe Gurley’s value could rise from the top-tier of running backs to a value reserved for the top running back.