Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are instances of three wide receivers who have each experienced value swings this season. Additionally, it includes brief analysis on what prompted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each wide receiver moving forward. Unless otherwise specified, all Dynasty Trade Values (DTVs) are based on a 12-team PPR league format.
Amari Cooper | 39.9
Prior to this season, Amari Cooper had a DTV of 46.9, which was similar in value to that of three 2018 mid first round rookie draft picks. Since then, he’s had a rough start. While Week 1 provided Cooper with the end zone targets that many fantasy football owners craved, it also brought the dreaded drops that many owners feared. Typically, three end zone targets would offer Cooper optimists satisfaction, but when all three of those targets are dropped, it offers feelings of emptiness. Cooper’s Week 1 lack of results in positive situations is the kind of thing that has an immediate impact on owners. Those active on social media or in their respective league’s chats were undoubtedly involved in or surrounded by Cooper chatter. Making a stressful topic even tenser, Week 2 through Week 6 offered minimal Cooper usage, lower fantasy points, and subsequently more fear. As a result, Cooper’s value dropped.
Cooper rebounded in Week 7 with a massive increase in usage by catching 11 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping nineteen targets. His DTV currently sits at 39.9 and while that’s still not a cheap price, it is a discount, and who doesn’t love a 15% off coupon to something that never goes on sale? It’s uncommon to find 23-year-old wide receivers who have not only topped 1,000 yards in their first two seasons but play on an offensively minded team as well. His value should make a comeback, and if the increased usage continues, his DTV could exceed that of its preseason form.
Stefon Diggs | 29.1
Prior to the season, Stefon Diggs had a DTV of 16.7, which was similar to that of a single 2018 mid first round rookie draft pick. Diggs had a fantastic start this season. In his first four weeks of regular season play, Diggs reeled in 22 receptions for 391 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Injury struck in Week 5, limiting his production and keeping him out of the lineup for the following two games. Currently, his DTV is 29.1; a steep increase in value that’s now on par with that of the first overall rookie draft pick in 2018.
Minnesota’s passing offense rank improved from 31st during Diggs’ rookie season to 18th during his second. As a result, Diggs’ statistical output increased from 84 receptions for 720 yards during his rookie season, to 112 receptions for 903 yards during his next. Currently, the Vikings possess the 14th-best passing offense. Even with the missed production opportunities because of injury, Diggs is on pace to set career highs in both receptions and receiving yards. Not to mention, he’s already caught four touchdowns which tie his current career high. Diggs did miss three games in each of his first two seasons and has already missed nearly three games this season. Once Diggs returns to the field though, he should return to producing fantasy points in the manner that would result in a continuous increase in DTV.
Sammy Watkins | 24.7
Prior to this season, Sammy Watkins had a DTV of 29.2 which, as previously mentioned, was similar in value to that of the 2018 1.01 rookie draft pick. Watkins’ first two seasons resulted in 2,029 receiving yards, 125 catches, and 15 touchdowns. Last year, half of his third season lost due to injury. It also didn’t help that the Bills threw the ball less than any other team that year. This year, shortly after the first week of the preseason, Watkins was traded to the Los Angeles Rams. Not having the opportunity to spend an offseason with Jared Goff has resulted in a lack of chemistry and as a result, Watkins only has 29 targets through seven games which trails his teammates Robert Woods (44), Cooper Kupp (42), and Todd Gurley (38). The Rams reliance on Gurley in the rushing game, paired with challenging matchups for Watkins this season, has resulted in Watkins receiving nearly half the targets per game that he’s averaged in his career.
Seven weeks into the season later, Watkins’ DTV has dropped to 24.7. Though only a small decrease, his value was already on the downfall as a result of a lackluster 2016. At only 24 years old and in the final year of his contract, if Watkins can develop chemistry with Goff, he could be granted the opportunity to stay with the Rams and grow alongside a young, exciting, and up and coming offense. If that chemistry fails to develop this season, he could sign with a team that could feature him during the prime years of his career.
Productive and young wide receivers are difficult to acquire in dynasty. Once they showcase favorable skills and talent on the field, their value rises and insulates even further. Even after a poor 2016 season, Watkins maintained 1.01 value. Cooper started this season with a high DTV despite spending 2016 playing second fiddle to Michael Crabtree in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. Diggs revealed consistent improvement from 2015 to 2016 which insulated his DTV and a strong start to 2017 has left it trending nowhere but up. If a wide receiver that you believe in is available for any kind of discount, acquire them, but be proactive about it because those opportunities quickly expire.
