Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are the biggest risers and fallers in Dynasty Trade Value (DTV) over the last month at the quarterback position. Additionally, it includes brief analysis on what prompted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each quarterback moving forward. Unless otherwise specified, all DTVs are based on a 12-team PPR league format.
The top three risers at quarterback had great Octobers. Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott are the leaders of young offenses and have taken spots among the top 6 in quarterback scoring. Watson is expected to slide off this leaderboard as a result of his injury, but he showed the dominance that he can bring to the field with young weapons like DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
Wentz and Prescott are both second-year quarterbacks who are attempting to prove that their rookie seasons were not flukes. Both quarterbacks are averaging around 25 fantasy points per game and show no signs of slowing down. All three of these quarterbacks can now be relied on to stabilize your team’s quarterback position for seasons to come. Both Wentz and Prescott are showing an ability to not only lead their teams to wins but put up a lot of points in doing so.
Each of these three rising quarterbacks have jumped into the top tier conversation, a label given to quarterbacks who owners envision and feel comfortable about having as their starting quarterback for the next decade. Watson is 22 years old while Wentz and Prescott are both 24, three sub-25-year-old players capable of elite level play in offenses that are young and score above the NFL average. That kind of stability at any fantasy position, even in one-quarterback leagues, leads to great, sustainable DTVs.
The top three fallers all had awful Octobers. Andrew Luck never saw found the field and was finally ruled out for the remainder of the season with his lingering shoulder issue. When he’s on the field, Luck produces at an elite level and deserves to be in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks conversation, but after missing half of the 2015 season, and now the entire 2017 season, there is a plausible reason for concern. Until Indianapolis decides to protect Luck with offensive line improvements, he will continue to find himself at high risk of getting hit, which would increase the likelihood of re-injury and as a result, miss more football games.
Aaron Rodgers was off to a great start in 2017, averaging nearly 26 fantasy points per game through five games. The 2017 injury monster struck Rodgers in Week 6 which is likely to end his season. Rodgers broke his collarbone in 2013 but showed no ill effects when he returned in 2014. Rodgers should return to form in 2018 and there is no reason to believe he cannot still be a cornerstone among dynasty quarterbacks.
Jameis Winston was an offseason darling at the quarterback position and expectations were high for the third year quarterback. Winston broke the 300-yard passing threshold in three of his first four games and appeared to be living up to those expectations before getting injured in his fifth game. He started each of the last two weeks but was unable to finish either game and will now be given an unknown amount of time off the field in order to allow for his shoulder to properly heal.
Each of these three falling quarterbacks are falling due to injury, but as they recover, so should their DTV. While they have lost some value, they are not losing their position among quarterbacks. The gap Rodgers has maintained in the past over other quarterbacks is shrinking. Luck can now be discussed in a tier at the top that appears to be growing; one that now includes Wentz and Prescott. Winston will need to return from injury and show healthy production before he can fit into discussions with Wentz and Prescott.
