Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are the biggest risers and fallers in Dynasty Trade Value (DTV) over the last month at the running back position. Additionally, it includes brief analysis on what prompted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each quarterback moving forward. Unless otherwise specified, all DTVs are based on a 12-team PPR league format.
Alvin Kamara was the highest rising running back over the last month which should come as no surprise. Kamara averaged twenty-four fantasy points per game over his last five games before leaving his Week 14 game with a concussion. Kamara led many fantasy teams to the playoffs. After starting the season slow as the New Orleans backfield was overcrowded, Kamara has now found his stride (which is beautiful to watch on long touchdown runs). Adrian Peterson is gone, and the Saints have shifted from a team winning games on the arm of Drew Brees to a team winning games based on their backfield duo. The electricity shown by Kamara has raised his value as quickly as Kareem Hunt’s rose earlier in the season.
Mark Ingram’s DTV more than doubled in October, 5.9 to 12.6, and it did not stop there. It has continued to rise to its current value of 18.1. As stated above, the Saints have shifted to a running game and are seeing major success because of it. Both Ingram and Kamara are proving to be solid starts each week. There is a chance that Ingram’s contract could allow him to reach free agency after this season. The success seen being part of this duo will hopefully keep him in New Orleans and both running backs should continue to complement each other and offer consistent fantasy points to your starting lineup. Starting two running back from the same team seems illogical but with Kamara and Ingram, doing so now ensures you are getting a bulk of the generated fantasy points being from a team that is a staple among the NFL’s highest scoring.
Kenyan Drake has surged from nearly no value to a value equal to that of the 2018 2.01 rookie draft pick. Late season surges are a perfect time to cash in on what was a lottery ticket. The value spike was very quick and was a result of a massive increase in opportunity. In Drake’s first four games of the season, he totaled four carries and five targets. In Week 13 and Week 14, he averaged 24 carries and 5.5 targets. If that workload holds steady in the future, then his owners found a piece of gold on the waiver wire. Miami has never shown signs of having that much faith in him and he was the only option at running back in those two games.
Aaron Jones was on the highest risers list last month as he stepped in for an injured Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams. Although, a fall happened as quickly as the rise as Williams returned from injury to take over the backfield and Jones suffered an injury of his own. Jones has returned from that injury, but the Packers still seem to favor Williams. Williams has 35 rushing attempts and ten targets over the last two games, compared to five rushing attempts and zero targets for Jones. The Green Bay backfield has been fickle all year. All three running backs have experienced massive shifts in values based on injury and when they have the backfield to themselves. It is unlikely to be a clear situation anytime soon, so buy the cheap one and sell them after they see their opportunity and have a value spike.
Melvin Gordon’s value may have peaked in the middle of the season. He received 45 carries and 20 targets between Week 5 and Week 6 which not surprisingly resulted in his two best fantasy point games, scoring 28.3 and 27 points respectively. He has been averaging 18.5 carries per game which have been sufficient to provide a fantasy point floor, but his work in the passing game has dropped. He has averaged just two targets per game as the Chargers seem to have shifted to having Austin Ekeler in the game in passing situations. With Ekeler playing the Woodhead role in San Diego, the ceiling of Gordon may be capped lower.
Kareem Hunt is now on the biggest fallers list after spending time as one of the fastest risers early in the season. In Hunt’s first five games of the season, he averaged 19.4 rushing attempts per game. Over the next seven games, Hunt received only nine carries in three different games. Even when he was given carries, defenses seemed to be keying on him and his yard per carry dropped dramatically, from 6.2 to 3.3. Decreased volume and defensive shifting proved to be the trouble spot that brought Hunt back down. There is hope for a return to the elite tier. In his most recent game, he was given 25 attempts and had his most productive fantasy day since Week 3. His talent has not changed. He may have skyrocketed too far in value as he broke out immediately this season, but he is also not a running back that will average single-season fantasy points per game. He is somewhere in between.
