Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are the biggest risers and fallers in Dynasty Trade Value (DTV) over the last month at the running back position. Additionally, it includes brief analysis on what prompted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each running back moving forward. Unless otherwise specified, all DTVs are based on a 12-team PPR league format.
Since October, Leonard Fournette saw his DTV rise the most at the running back position. He accounted for 467 yards and four touchdowns in three October games. In each of those games, he received over 20 carries and amassed seven receptions on eight targets over that span, showing an ability to produce in the passing game. He missed Week 7 with an injury and was suspended Week 9 game for violating a team rule. Jacksonville has clearly shown a desire to center their offensive attack on Fournette, and his DTV continues to reflect that notion.
Mark Ingram’s DTV more than doubled since October. He has excelled since the departure of Adrian Peterson and has managed to do so alongside the emergence of Alvin Kamara in New Orleans’ offense. Ingram is not going to get volume similar to Fournette, but the Saints should present more consistent scoring opportunities than the Jaguars. Ingram averaged 11.1 fantasy points per game in games where he split carries with Peterson and Kamara. Since Peterson’s departure, Ingram has averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game. It’s worth noting that while Kamara did not make the top three in DTV change, his DTV did rise from 14.2 to 17.6.
Aaron Jones, while tied with Ingram for the second highest increase in DTV, saw the highest percentage of increase among all running backs with 191%; his DTV nearly triple of what it was in September. The injury to Ty Montgomery paved way for Jones to become the lead back for one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. While the injury to Aaron Rodgers sets the entire Green Bay offense back a notch, Jones has handled his opportunity well during Montgomery’s absence, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game in October, and clearly appears to be the most favored among Green Bay’s rookie running backs.
Mike Gillislee has disappeared from the Patriots offense. He never did become a threat in the passing game and the Patriots have a guy at quarterback that makes their passing offense their most dangerous method of exploiting opposing defenses. Gillislee presents as a touchdown or bust type of player. New England’s running back preference seemingly changes at the whim of their head coach, but the lack of use in the passing game limits Gillislee’s upside and has led to the decrease of his Dynasty Trade Value.
Carlos Hyde averaged 12.66 fantasy points per game in October. While generally still effective at 12.66 fantasy points per game, a player with a DTV of 18.1 warrants higher expectations. Hyde is playing with a rookie quarterback that, after just two starts, the 49ers have made clear is not the quarterback of their future. To defend their stance, San Francisco traded for Jimmy Garoppolo at the NFL trade deadline. Hopefully, Garoppolo can bring stability and overall improvements to the winless 49ers offense that currently stands third to last in points per game. With Pierre Garcon out for the season, San Francisco needs offensive weapons. Head coach Kyle Shanahan reportedly “loved” that Hyde came to the defense of his quarterback during Week 9’s NFL ‘fight fest’. Hyde has not fallen out of favor in San Francisco; he’s just playing on a bad team. An improvement in their offense should benefit Hyde and concurrently stabilize his DTV.
Montgomery saw a rapid increase in his DTV when he had complete control of the Packers backfield at the beginning of the season. The NFL injury monster snuck up on Montgomery as he approached October. Multiple broken ribs prevented Montgomery from playing in Week 5 and since, it’s resulted in him receiving fewer touches and lowered production. Green Bay is now missing the key that drives their offense and all Packers players have lost production. Brett Hundley is not Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense will continue to have fewer scoring opportunities until Rodgers returns. Combine that with Jones proving that he can be an effective three-down running back, and Montgomery’s value has likely already peaked. While Montgomery may find a place in the offense down the road and provide fantasy value, his current outlook remains bleak until Rodgers returns or his future role in the offense becomes more of a certainty.
