Using Market Value To Identify High-Stakes Dynasty Opportunity

Fantasy football has evolved in so many ways. One of the ways it’s changed is the amount of skin players are putting into the game. I sat down with high-stakes dynasty fantasy football player Austin Martin (@AustinRMartin84 on Twitter) to see if I could gain a little insight into the perspective of the high-stakes fantasy player. Here are some takeaways from our conversation…

Me:
It occurred to me that there are a ton of fantasy football content providers, but I haven’t really seen many high-stakes dynasty articles out there. Can I pick your brain a little?

Austin:
I would assume that stems from the fact that those with high stakes on the line prefer to keep the information for themselves… as they perceive it to be more valuable to their bankroll, rather than putting it out there. My partner and I currently have a little over $20,000 in play across about 50 leagues on the dynasty side. We have increased our volume significantly this year, so we’re still working to refine our process.

Me:
High-stakes dynasty fantasy football seems like an entirely different world. I imagine having THAT much skin in the game puts a whole different level of gravity on your season.

Austin:
I use The Dynasty Trade Calculator, by the way. I use it as a barometer for what the market thinks.

Me:
Oh nice! Can you give me some examples of what you mean?

Austin’s answer…

Using Market Value To Identify High-Stakes Dynasty Opportunity

JuJu Smith-Schuster
I’m willing to fire him up as early as 1.04. But the good news is; you don’t have to. He’s consistently dropping to the back end of the 1st round. JuJu is still just 22 Years old, and is now locked in as Big Ben’s top target. No injury history to speak of, and a model citizen off the field. JuJu is as safe as they come AND he cares about your fantasy team. He gets it. Go get him!

Derrick Henry
The Titans behemoth RB is consistently falling to round 4. But realistically, he probably shouldn’t make it out of the 2nd (and definitely not the 3rd). Henry is a 25 year old, and has extremely low mileage on a run-first offense, which includes a very good offensive line. He’s underrated as a receiver, and a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. If you are like me, you like to buy young ascending players who have the potential to catapult themselves into the 1st round conversation in the following year’s draft. Derrick Henry is a prime candidate.

Tyler Lockett
Lockett’s efficiency numbers are completely off the charts. Russell Wilson’s QB Rating when targeting Tyler Lockett last year: PERFECT. Lockett’s number of dropped passes in 2018: ZERO. With Doug Baldwin’s departure, Lockett moves inside to the slot. Already a bottom-half unit in 2018, the Seattle Defense was even further decimated this offseason. As much as Brian Schottenheimer would love to run the ball 50 times a game, he is going to find himself in negative game scripts… and will eventually need to open things up.

Christian Kirk
22 year old WR who now finds himself paired up with Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray & the Air Raid Offense. His familiarity with the Air Raid from his days at Texas A&M provides him with a distinct advantage, and I believe he is set to explode, going on to produce WR2 numbers for a WR4 price tag (usually going in round 5 or 6).

Curtis Samuel
A month ago, my guy DJ Moore would have been in this spot. While I still love him, the market hasn’t quite caught up to Curtis Samuel yet. An RB converted to WR, Samuel has been held back by injuries in his first two seasons, and is still picking up the nuances of being a professional WR. By all accounts, he has figured it out, and has been said to be “virtually uncoverable” in camp. Was also voted most improved by teammates. With a healthy Cam Newton, the sky is the limit for Samuel (and DJ Moore).

Julian Edelman
Currently going in round 6 or 7 of a dynasty startup. The Calculator has him valued just about equal to a 2020 mid-2nd round pick. If you have ANY chance to compete in 2019, you owe it to yourself to inquire about Edelman. With Josh Gordon’s reinstatement, you may even get a better price on Edelman than you would have weeks ago. Depending on how deep your league rosters are and how easy it is to rebuild, I am willing to pay about twice the market rate for Edelman (on contending team).

The above-mentioned 6 players are great examples of what high-stakes dynasty players like Austin are looking for. Being able to identify players who are below market value is one of the keys to gaining a competitive edge. Monitoring things like ADP, Dynasty Rankings, and The Calculator will help you keep your finger on the pulse.